Specialists from the USA answer on different questions about cheap oil.
The price of oil, which we can see on this week - it,s a six-year low earlier. Even if prices stay at today levels, chances are they won't impact the Federal Reserve's interest-rate plans.
More than fifty percents of economists from the USA survey said crude oil prices around $40 per barrel for the next months too would have no impact on the Fed. Other specialists said it would influence the central bank, the respondents were evenly split between whether it would cause a delay in the first interest-rate increase or slow the hiking path.
On the last week William Dudley - president of New York Fed said that the case for raising rates on the autumn is less compelling after recent market volatility.
Oil sustained around $40 through the end of the year will only put prices further from the Fed's 2 percent target. The median projection of 24 economists is for a deduction of 0.3 percentage point from average, year-over-year CPI this year, which economists forecast at exactly 0.3 percent in a separate survey.
And don't discount the chance of oil prices, as measured by West Texas Intermediate futures, staying at these lows for at least a while. Economists assigned more than 50 percents probability that crude will stay around less than $40 per barrel through the end of September. Forty percent said it could stay here until the end of the year. And it could get worse; one in three of the economists said oil will fall to as low as $30 a barrel.
While crude has come down far and fast (prices were as high as $61.43 in the beginning of the Summer), the drop may actually help U.S. growth. Economists say oil prices sustained at the current levels through the end of the year would boost U.S. GDP by 0.2 percentage point. That scenario would have no impact on U.S. exports and global growth.